Elected or not, the country certainly would have experienced Civil War, but Lincoln was a wise and fair-minded man who understood need for slavery to end - for humane and economic and national reasons - and he brought to his role the clear vision to help that occur. Had he not been present at the time, the situation may have gone on a bit longer, but war would have come, only later than sooner. Had Lincoln lived, perhaps transition would have been easier, more direct, and perhaps we would not be struggling still today to the degree we are.